MINIMIZING ERROR IN CALIBRATING SPECTROMETERS Part 3. Continuous Maintenance – Determine the Optimum Number of Factors and Identify Outliers That Degrade Model Performance

In every instance of process or laboratory measurement it pays to understand the source of errors and to minimize those errors where possible. From the sampling system to the instrument or analyzer settings, to the method development used for interpreting the signal, to the maintenance of the calibration over time, all have something to contribute to the error profile. In the case of optical spectroscopy, care needs to be exercised in the initial setup and data processing method development, but once set, these remain constant for the life of the system. Minimizing error then falls to the routine calibration maintenance, which requires constant monitoring of the process results.

In Part 1, one suggestion was to improve the precision of the reference method by running duplicate samples and averaging or adopting the median value. However, we can take advantage of the many samples that are collected during the calibration process, and averaging may not be necessary. Consider a typical calibration as shown in the figure. The distribution of points around the regression line is controlled by errors both in the spectrometer/sampling system and in the reference method. In a gaussian distribution, the best answer is at the apex. If we rotate the regression line to be oriented vertically, we essentially are mapping the points to a gaussian. This means that the best estimate is anywhere on the regression line.

Here is the link to the full presentation on Minimizing Error in Calibrating Spectrometers from ATC 2025 Conference. Also available in Youtube video from 00:00 to 22:00.

MINIMIZING ERROR IN CALIBRATING SPECTROMETERS – Part 2. Method Development – Choosing Preprocessing, Model Complexity, and Algorithm Selection

Choosing the best method will optimize how future spectra will be processed. The calibration procedure for spectroscopic models begins with selecting appropriate preprocessing methods. Different analyzer technologies (e.g., NIR vs. Raman), spectrometer manufacturers, and chemometric algorithms can influence the optimal choices. To evaluate preprocessing methods, Root Mean Squared Error of Cross Validation (RMSECV) is commonly used, offering a reliable measure of combined bias and precision error.

In one example, various combinations of preprocessing techniques (e.g., derivatives, scatter correction, normalization) were tested. The results showed that some combinations significantly outperformed others, with the best approaches selected based on minimizing RMSECV with the fewest model factors.

Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression is the standard algorithm due to its widespread integration and effectiveness in handling errors from both spectroscopy and lab sources. However, PLS assumes linearity, which doesn’t always apply. In such cases, alternative methods like Locally Weighted PLS (LWR-PLS) can provide better performance by addressing non-linearity through localized modeling.

Finally, method development is a one-time effort. Once a spectral data processing method is chosen, it generally remains fixed throughout the instrument’s use.

Here is the link to the full presentation on Minimizing Error in Calibrating Spectrometers from ATC 2025 Conference. Also available in Youtube video from 00:00 to 22:00.

MINIMIZING ERROR IN CALIBRATING SPECTROMETERS – Part 1. Accuracy vs Precision: Misconceptions of error that influences decisions

The terms “accuracy” and “precision” are often confusing. Accuracy refers to how close a result is to a known value, while precision indicates the consistency of repeated results. Ideal measurements are both accurate and precise. However, it’s possible to have high precision with poor accuracy, or low precision that still averages out to an accurate result over many trials.

Application to Octane Measurement:
In octane rating analysis, precision is a challenge, especially with the reference octane engine, which is not always precise despite being used to define accuracy. Essentially, the octane engine represents the “Not precise, maybe accurate” portion of picture. Repeated measurements of the same gasoline sample show a normal distribution of values with a standard deviation of ~0.25 octane units, meaning 95% of results fall within ±0.5 units.

The calibration process, then, is charged with mapping a very precise spectrum to a far less precise reference value and calibration must account for this. One can run multiple engine tests on the same sample and use the average value to reduce error—error decreases with the square root of the number of runs. In dealing with a system where the reference is imprecise, there is more that we can do.

Here is the link to the full presentation on Minimizing Error in Calibrating Spectrometers from ATC 2025 Conference. Also available in Youtube video from 00:00 to 22:00.

Quality Assurance with Ai-Metrix Automated Model Validation

Ai-Metrix Automated Model ValidationAi-Metrix®now offers a fully automated model validation framework, combining real-time tracking with powerful diagnostics based on ASTM D6122 and comprehensive Nelson Rule monitoring. Designed to support high-stakes environments like gasoline blending, this feature ensures your predictive models remain accurate, reliable, and audit-ready as new data flows in.

🎯Smarter Monitoring Starts Here
As your team uploads fresh data to the Ai-Metrix server, our system continuously evaluates model performance using robust statistical tools. A streamlined dashboard gives you instant visibility:

✅ Visual Control Charts – Instantly identify anomalies with trend plots showing ±1, 2, and 3 standard deviations.
✅ Advanced Rule Integration – Choose from Nelson Rules or ASTM D6122 checks to detect early signs of model drift or calibration issues.
✅ Dynamic Model Grid – See all active models at a glance, organized by product grade and property. Click to dive deeper into sample counts and validation metrics.
✅ Flexible Metric Selection – Monitor predicted values, residuals, F-ratios, or Mahalanobis distance to match your validation strategy.
✅ Rule Violations Trigger – Violations can trigger an email to a distribution list for action.

🎯Why It Matters
→ Regulatory Alignment – ASTM D6122 compliance, built-in.
→ Hands-Free Oversight – Continuous, automated validation as data is collected.
→ Proactive Alerts – Catch issues before they affect process quality.
→ Complete Transparency – From calibration sample size to rule violations, everything is traceable and actionable.
→ Real time updates – With the Ai-Metrix calibration power, model updates are available in real time to move the system back into compliance.

🎯Confidence in your models isn’t optional—it’s critical.
Ai-Metrix delivers a smarter, automated approach to model validation that helps your team maintain compliance, ensure process integrity, and make better decisions, faster. Explore the new validation dashboard today and take control of your model quality.

Book a quick demo and see how Ai-Metrix can elevate your operations. info@infometrix.com

“Quality is never an accident. It is always the result of intelligent effort.”
– John Ruskin, English writer (1819-1900)

SciX 2025 Conference – On Machine Learning, PLS, and Local Weighting

Venue: Northern Kentucky Convention Center, Covington, KY

Date: Oct 5 – 10, 2025

Brian Rohrback will be presenting in the session on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Process Analytical Technology (PAT). See abstract below.

On Machine Learning, PLS, and Local Weighting

AUTHOR: Brian Rohrback
ABSTRACT:
A dozen years ago, Infometrix embraced the target of completely automating the installation and maintenance of any optical spectrometer and for any application. Ultimately, the goal is to identify a generic machine learning approach that can be taken to mimic the results that an experienced chemometrician would achieve if charged with producing an optimized model.  The idea has been presented in numerous publications and this specific work was triggered initially by Workman et al. (1995). Clearly, the chemometrics tasks can be broken down, assigning best practices procedures for each. One part of this process is choosing the algorithmic approach. Partial Least Squares (PLS) is the workhorse and is incorporated into nearly every spectroscopy system.   In cases of non-linearity, a locally weighted application of PLS will avoid the failures of non-linear methods.  Local models can also simplify model maintenance as conditions (spectrometer, ingredients, unit operations) change.

Automation of Local Regression Model Building for Spectroscopic Data – Journal of Chemometrics